tv Street Signs CNBC January 31, 2013 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
for us. because i basically la soed him -- >> for the last 20 years, i've been eating standing up. that's the way we eat down here. not like we have a relaxing lunch. >> true. what are you watching? >> the resiliency of the market. it just really seems to be a floor? the market where buyers just cannot to keep it above there and they are happy buying it. where you could say haks crow, or little problem going on in the world pu they seem to want it buy the market. today to me you see that but you see nlt big high flyer names, googles, amazons. people are relentless on their buy tickets. >> thank you. now enjoy the anti-pasta, or whatever you're eating. >> thank you. >> three of the most interesting men in washington. john harwood, that's number one.
alex simpson and erskine bowles. they are interesting, pungent, fun funny. all three of them are interesting, pungent and funny. we will talk debt and mother with those guys. >> and with your special, i can't wait to see it. >> thank you. >> it is funny. >> death is a preview, i believe that's mary's title. >> a good title. >> thank you for watching "power lunch." be back with you tomorrow. >> "street signs" begins now. >> welcome to a buy coastal "street signs" where history rules the day. jan las been great for stocks. but we have got stats about how will full year may look that you have got to see to believe. which stocks have been the hottest this month? we will show you and dig out one big dog. plus herb is all hot and
bothered on a new etf. we will name of names. and we talk a lot about the retail investors about how to get him and her invested in stocks again. mandy is helping do just that. >> absolutely. hi, everybody. i'm here at the conference in san diego, brian. i have fallen in love with your hometown. or at least one of your home towns. hello, everybody. hello, san diego. it is one of the biggest gatherings of investment advisors in the nation, guys. bringing together 1,500 managing about $650 billion in a assets. in all about 3,000 people with record attendance this year. we will speak with some of the top money minds in the business as well as head honcho himself. a friend of "street signs." ceo fred waiting in the wings just over there. all coming up, brie be a, but first of all, i will kick it
back over to you. >> a will meantry and high school in encinitas, they built this. so reduce their funding. see you in a bit. >> i will make sure i good over and give them a personal thank you. >> and a juanita's taco. so goes the year. if that holds true, we could be in store for an amazing 11 missouris. let's head into the time machine to find o out why. okay. s&p 500 is up more than 5 percent in month. that usually signals a good year but do you know just how good they've done? look at this. 180, up if january. 9 full year, 25.7 perps 75. january was a rocket. the year we finished up more than 31%. sheer why we returned to the '50s today. here you go. in 1954, january up about the same as it is now. 5.1%. full year, a stunning 45% gain
for the markets. all right, let's bring in bob pisani. all right, we showed off returns for january and the year. here, is what is even more amazing. up 5% or more in january. 11 times. and we never. even in the crash year in '87. ever ended the year when that happened. >> the january barometer is a very exception alone. you know, the point here, just the general point, as goes january, there goes the year. now accuracy is very generally pretty kb. accurate about 75% of the time in the last 63 years. that's a pretty good number overall. here is the quibble, i only have two minor gibls with this. number one, not always telling
you exactly what will happen between february and december. down 7% in january but ending the year down about 3%. so the market went up. and it is not recently. only worked six of the laugh 12 years. but folks, this is a good one as far as chet nuts go. by the way, 1954 i saw you put that up with the s&p 45% thap that's the big year, that's the year they passed the 1929 high. as i recall it was 381 on the dow jones industrial average. 381, you noerd that right. that was the start of a big bull market. >> i think we also had early gdp groem. >> yes. >> fundamental. from downtown new york downtown to, yes, one of my home towns, my childhood and beloved san
diego charges, mardy, take it away. >> okay, thank you, brian. i'm joined by david cuddler, who is main stay and also emerging market strategist. brian and i like to have little bets. going into 2013, we add bet as to how the markets would perform over the course of the year. brian said japan would be the best developed market. . i say this is the year of the shanghai come back. what do you ghies this? is the u.s. the best place to be this year? david? >> i think you are talking about three markets all doing well. setting up for a good year in 2013 pb china i think avoided the hard landing. so china and with prime minister, with the indications about central bank easing, it just demonstrates a conviction
that he wants to spur growth in japan. >> of course, you're mr. emerging market himself, soer with not talking specifically about only emerging markets. but is the u.s. the best place for investor to be this year? >> mani thends if you look at mixed income or equity. i will agree, especially we have a preference. places where you can generate income. not so much where the growth is stronger and there are expectations. don't think will be that quite. and this really, i think, is there be on the road. and like both equity on the fixed income side of the equation there. >> i think you both brought up a good question. and i'm wondering whether or not, and bob pisani talked about this earlier today, could this be a death by slow growth
situation? traders are worried about it. and not yet baked into the stock market, is it, david? >> stocks can do well in a slow growth environment. and i think a lost investors are underestimating the strength of the market and the economy. we had an good gdp -- >> and the number-doctor. >> for fourth quarter. we can ceci 2% with multiple extensions and descent earnings. the markets can do well. >> what do you like? ? >> we think that -- >> too late to get in then? >> not too late. housing turned in 2012. stocks have been extremely well, but we are coming off the
housing declining. and we think that housing stocks have a lot further to go the next couple of years. >> i will pinpoint, how do you play housing then? >> you either play in a deversefide manner pb homeowners and is you lie chain, even home delot. and eagle materials supplying, building supplies forth commercial andes have den rnl. you look at a lot of the secretary poerps we think it'll do well as housing just continue to put better and better numbers going forward. >> you are playing more defense, aren't you? >> i think the emerging markets have more room to run. i think retail could not be as -- having to brace as fully as they should given the economy of emerging markets have gone to but how much room they will,
shorter term though, i think going into the next six to 12 months, i will stick to the fixed income. some people don't realize over the last ten years, merging markets hit stocks, bonds and not only -- also from a risk adjusted perspective. some people assume that emerging stocks must be the way to go. but it is done better. here in u.s., munis, made a small return over the course of the month. >> we are in california here so we have tax issues going on in the state, obviously. and i think especially for california based investors but also i think munies make sense at this time as well. >> what keeps you both up at night? >> one thing that worries me the most and that's policy mistake. whether from the fed or central bank, we like the easy free man markets. you see the money pronouncement,
you see what the markets did. for any reason we changer reverse, we think the markets act accordingly. >> is a continuing fiscal debate. >> we need washington to get the job done and get out of the way and let markets move forward with certainty. >> wall street is increasingly shrugging off washington. thank you so much for joining us today. brian, backer to you. >> mandy, i have good news. california no longer has the worst credit rating of the states. that honor goes to illinois. they can have a beer tonight. >> speaking of beer, a big beer deal goes flat. regulators smacking down a $20 buyout. plus, a story around this we are just getting from washington, d.c. eamon javers getting ready for
you. did the high know about the decision before anybody else? we're going to so you some evidence they might have. you will want to see that. plus -- we will talk about gas and if d.c. can finally get it right. then back out to san diego. mandy's got an exclusive interview with the man running the company putting on the conference. "street signs" exclusive from san diego rb right after this.
kind of on baited breath here. waiting for dow 14,000. list yep wrb no guarantee we will ever hit it. but we are less close than yesterday. dow is down .2 percent of 1% and tomorrow could be a big day for markets. why? the monthly payroll number some people refer to it as the all important jobs number. we will find out. just a reminder, that number is out tomorrow. don't take friday off. meantime, big beer battle is brewing after regulators block a multibillion merger green grupo moelo. regulators saying you will have roughly a larger part of the market. they claim this will hit pocket books in a big way. here is why i think it is surprising even though people on
the deal were not expecting this to really happen. that's because when they brought in anheuser-busch in 2008, they had to connect with someone they were familiar with. you think if they do something that small, then how could you explain these two woult doing that. there was speculation about whether they could divest, which is 1.1% share. bush brands are about 10%. they corps convinced because of who they were getting advice from. madero's at the doj, she is now a partner at luke and she was representing modelo on this. and the rest is history based on the rest of what we found out this morning.
the caller bill baer talks about why it is so strict. this is not something customers buy a lot of. if you increase even by a couple sings, that will cause a lot of problems later on. brian? >> i want it get to washington, d.c. from applian jafers. this is fat nating. an extremely complex topic. we are dealing with sthiem in time that is em possible for my brap to kpe hind. what is the story here. >> this is a case of, blanch even you'll miss it. i want to walk you through carefully. remember on tuesday, we all red the a numbers that federal investigators were shutting down investigation into whether or not news was leaking out of washington inappropriately in advance of mark yet moving data being released from federal
government agencies? take a look at two examples from today of interesting and unusual activity in the markets that we have been able to spot just today. i want to start with natural gas. take a look at the chart here. what we are looking at is a char provided us to by a firm called nanes. it is based out of chicago. they are looking alt future transactions ahead of a natural gas report from eia. what they are seeing is at about 400 milliseconds, before the 10:30 a.m. release time, they see a spike in trading there. they see it about 250,000 futures are sold, just 400 mill seconds before the 10:30 release time. this is data that when it came out at 10:30 caused markets to decline.
keep that chart up, guys, if you could. >> eamon. >> yeah. >> i'm going to jump in. i want our viewers to understand what we are looking at. this is incredible news, right? we have 10:30 here. these aren't minute. if we wanted to have 10:29 a.m. on this chart, it would be about a mile down that way. these are fractions of fractions of fracks of seconds. >> right. >> so what you are saying is some computer somehow, some way, this is not -- this is too fast for human error, right? absolutely. >> a computer that is able to figure it out. logging key strokes on the -- something -- right? what we are talking about here. >> when we see 500 and 600, numbers at the bottom of the chart here before 10:30, that's milliseconds within a second. whole end of that second is off to your right, way past the edge of that schachart. where it says news leaked there, that's conclusion reached by
nanex. nanex decided they think this is the evidence that news was leaked here from the eia. we don't know that for sure. we know the news came out at 10:30 and nanex has seen the spike in trading, before all of these people, most of these people sold, 250,000 futures contract sold for value of $4.6 million in just that little amount of time. after the news comes out, shares go down. they were able to protect their money in advance of shares going down on that news. it continues some length of time. >> we got to go. but i think it is important to hedge it too. there is a possible, right, that they simply guessed? >> yes, right. we should leave -- we should be very careful with this and leave possibilities open here. it is a possibility that somebody got lucky, that somebody used their intuition
about where the mark set going. nanez says they think the news was leaked. we won't say that mp i want to get you quickly, and i know wove got to run here but just before we saw the justice department news, with you were talking about the anheuser-busch merge enaction here today. we have a charge here of constellation. this is a beer distributor. and it is in the course of this merge ennews. what we saw was shares were under pressure very early on throughout the day. well before in fact the news of the justice department's activity here broke publicly. what we are seeing is this particular stock taking a hit, well before news publicly comes out that affects the stock. and we know here internally that exactly when this news broke because we were in fact in contact with the department of justice pch you could see that
happening even before we were aware of what was happening with this share f prices. another example. something interesting in the markets. >> maybe it a guess, with your journalistic instincts, and if it walks and talks like a duck -- >> don't want to lead to conclusions but interesting to look at. >> certainly. thank you, eamon. after the break, we will go back 20u9 san diego where there are three things that need to happen right now to get our economy in full gear. then herb is all hopped up over a hot new etf. he actually likes something. he is like miky from the life serial commercial. we will find out why next when shines returns. ... would define you as a true leader. ♪ to hold over 80,000... well, that would make you... the creators of the 2013 mercedes-benz e-class...
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sngs welcome back it "street signs," everybody. since we promised you a buy coastal show bb a bi coastal show we shall give you. er with here at conference 2013 in beautiful sunny san diego. i'm joined by a very special guest, fred, who is running this show, basically. he is the president and ceo of td ameritrade. first of all, i want to talk to you about the investing. this, so far this year, is
really defining the year. the retail investor is come back. why and are they going to stay? >> i think it comes down to the economy. ne yes, they are continuing to prove. and we avoided the fiscal cliff. i think we kicked it down the road. but fe are feeling better about the economy right now. that's the main reason. >> why good reason though when you look at the last two gdp, or are they misguided on that? >> i i think that trends have been misguided. when you look at things, last year it is up 14%. so far this year up 6% opinion just getting increasingly signs and betting bullish? retailers are basically coming in as we see multiyear highs, not far from record highs. are they burned again? >> only time will tell.
i think time is healing. better balance sheets than they've had in a long time. feds putting on stimulus and this economy has legs. if they get increased comments, and consumers continue to come back into the market. i think it has the right things. washington can screw it up here. >> we certainly hope they don't. brian and eamon were talking about a story which made me think. when you have computers out there, executing trades in milliseconds, what does the retail investor think about that? do they say, this isn't a field or do they kpat mtal eyes. i think you have increasing science for those that work in the ind us 2ri, getting increasingly near vows about this that will impact the integrity of the markets. i think from market structure
perspective, there are smings that need to be corrected and fixed. but four for the average retail investors, it is average headlines but not on the top of their mind. >> thank you for the show. good conference you are putting on as well. >> if i'm not there on the show, you'll see what happens. >> thank you. snrs that's my street. i love it. >> now back down to the beer deal. beer and tacos may go together but this deal may not happen because the doj wants it block it. is it the right move or too much. don, your thought on this lawsuit to block the deal. >> my thought is that the lawsuit makes a lost sense. this wuf got a highly concentrated market with image-driven products. and i think that -- i think that
it -- if the government's evidence in its complaint is right, mondelo has been a disruptive factor in the and miller coors on the other hand. >> jorge posada, we are a little presd for time pip understand they are worried about creating barriers to entry, but look at the art that i was found. more than 2100 today. small breweries have blamed the laugh 20 or 10 years. even as big players merge. >> i like them. >> but consumers have choice so -- let's say the deal goes through and they raise pricees. that's the fear, right? >> yes. >> can you buy a fat tire or
dale's pale ale instead of that brand. you have choices. doesn't the doj and the fact that i can drink and like a fat tire may not have any impact on the people who are looking at miller light or coors light. >> is this sending a message on the new ussa predecessor was thought to be too willing and they made it clear they don't like the deal they were offered. con, we'll sit down and have a fat tire, hopefully soon. thanks. >> thank you. >> the business of debt. mega mortality when "street signs" continues. their money do. (ann) to help me plan my next move, i take scottrade's free, in-branch seminars...
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it is done. is he sending a signal that he thinks he has done all he can on jobs? >> no pb i think chairman and members of the commission put on his desk and he spend the next tw year implementing it. so let's say zpeel with the ones with got. and take action for america now, jobs agenda for growth, a lot of what we are talk about pb to get the private sector growing and get the federal deficit under control. >> one of your recommendation says get debt under control, right? you say, yeah, debt is not great but it is not awful or some as awful as credibly holding the economy back. >> a lot of it is serpty b-- lo
sequestering looming in a few weeks. we just have to much uncertainty everywhere you look. we should go back it doing actual annual dujets. deficit should begin to shrink and long-term, clearly, the social he is neurity and medicare system trustees which until this week, they have included tim geithner, and soon jack lieu. and look, change the jack, or or time but it sends billions and billions, decades from now. >> if you could make one other recommendation, i will give you a lot of four a day, government wlab would it be. >> to get a u.s. international and corporate tax system that's fully competitive, if i could waive the wand and do that, that would be helpful.
and all of those tax changes, simplifying the tax, fixing the international problem, to pring profits back home overseas without double dgsing. i would add immigration reform to it so it can now have the way it get the capital from anywhere in the world and then watch us roar. >> all right. we need more roaring. >> after down yesterday,er with right on time with the recommendations. >> we need spaenging. got nor, thank you very much. speaking of roaring, herb is here. he is hot and bothered. usually you come on and you say why something stinks. you will say why something is great. i'm the guy that raises red flags and people say, it is all about shorting. no, it is about managing risk and reminding people that if they own the stock, maybe they don't want to own it. if they own it, double think
about it pb it launched today, it t is called the forensic, he is co-manager of active bear and sea short seller. what i love with b this, this is a based etf whens. the lowest rated stock, lowest rated r 20% of the fund. that's what is interesting they are not included in the index. s&p 500 out two those that would be rated on an -- >> like soccer. you pinnish at the. >> as a result, and based on testing, it appears to be better. you can't help but not like the idea. i like the idea. but i think it is fascinating. what's the top, what the bottom. if you look at these, what
stocks would give me left out. he gave me five. fossil. perrigo. first solar. we need fak u. >> okay, but, to quote the great and powerful herb greenberg, one more thing fossil is up 400 percent in four years. perrigo is up more than 300% in four years. fe had done this a couple years ago, investors would have missed out on a lot of-dpsh a lot of gains. >> no, no. you don't know where these would have been a few years ago and you are falling into -- and this is what have investors going into this thing. the top five names, if you look at this pch dell, a number of short sellers wonlt agree with
them on. >> dell? >> dell. good balance sheet. good cash flow. >> let's be clear for our audience. he is not saying these are great quality, unconfusing, somebody with a basic accounting background could look at income statement, look at balance sheet and understand it. it is not 180 pages long. >> i think there is a potential flaw. and it won't tell fut business model is flawed. remember, you can have companies that are looking great in the cash flow rb everything. no. may not have a business model that zpt quite get there. stock pickers are doing much better when they look at this these days. about time somebody did something like this. spot lights something that needs to be -- >> i'll tell you what i need to do. january 13, 2013, a day living
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sell-off if tomorrow's job reports disappoints. let's send it back out to beautiful san diego and mandy. >> thanks very much for that, scotty. guys, it is tax time. and td mare tried just put out a survey on how you want the government to spend your hard-earned cash. joining me now is retail distribution. everyone wants something for their money, right? what do americans feel about how they would like the government to spend their hard-earned tax dollar? >> one of the number one things, mandy, is they wanted the government to decrease the health of cost care and the other is to pay down pet. and they are craving our government to elame nate and get responding on the whole, people do not tax hikes? they do not putting in a little bit more if they feel that they are getting a little bit more back? >> i think actually in the u.s., we just don't like to pay taxes. >> i think you will find that in
every country and the world. maybe. but what we see is people don't mind paying more as long as it isn't going to waste. they also want to see reduction in spending to offset that and balance the budget. >> what is the mind-set in terms of what people will do with their tax refund? are they intending to pay down debt? save it? or go spend it? what the most important. most people will pay down the debt, 44% said they would do that and 47% said they would set it aside for a rainy day. i think that's a clear indication of where investors are and they are nervous. they are 7 quite sure what will happen. while there is more optimism out there, as a result of markets going up, they are still concerned. >> and refund expectations have
gone down in terms of hanging up here. they aren't expecting quite as much. >> can you break it down forness terms of jender? findings for men, findings for women? >> that's interesting. single men and single women do fewer single woman will say, more single men will say. but for one reason, once they get married, the woman is more likely to save than the man. >> why? >> we should ask a psychologist, i don't know. >> they don't give reasons for that? >> they weren't specific. general observations made. and i think you're in in a household, women tend to see expenditures going through on the household and they are more apt it say, we have to say someone here. save money for groceries, college education, there and we're not quite sure what we'll
be faced with down the road. >> you said one of the biggest priority is they want more affordable healthcare. does that mean it was particularly prevalent among those who are aging? >> they are more apt to. they didn't necessarily said better, they just said they want back. >> tom bradley. >> you were single once. you know the answer. single men are dumb. they do dumb things. >> do they have to be single to be dumb? >> i was an idiot. >> i don't know. >> oh, what did you say? >> do they have to be single to be done? >> now i understand. see new san diego. all right, sixth men are stupid. thank up. up next, our "grow up" series
continues. we leave you with us. a live picture where mandy is right now. the san diego airport. you have the indian ocean -- that's a joke, folks. stay classy, san diego. we're back right after this. [ man ] i've been out there most of my life. you name it...i've hooked it. but there's one... one that's always eluded me. thought i had it in the blizzard of '93. ha! never even came close. sometimes, i actually think it's mocking me. [ engine revs ]
♪ grow up, the economy. since 2009, the u.s. government has run deficits of more than a trillion dollars a year. that translates to about $55,000 of debt per household. the u.s. gladly take your money to help reduce the debt. you can contribute at treasurydirect.gov and, yes, the donations are tax-deductible. >> as part of our continuing series looking at ways to growth american economy our next guest says nat gas could be a boon for it if only d.c. did its part to help out. he should know, president of the american gas association. dave, by doing its part, do you mean get out of the way or get more involved?
>> actually the market is working pretty well, and what we see with american innovation and technology, we have this shale revolution which has created tremendous abundance. over 100-year supply of natural gas. it's clean. it's now affordable, and it's being produced in 32 states, so it's even closer to the markets than it's ever been before so it's truly a game-changer. it gives the united states a competitive advantage that other nations don't have. and then you build on that with 2.4 million miles of pipeline infrastructure that we have which is the envy of the world. if we build on that infrastructure, if we work and encourage public/private partnerships and have a level playing field, we really don't need the federal government to intervene or take immediate action. >> dave, listen, i've gone back and forth with my friend boone pickens on this, right, and i agree with the pickens plan to a point and i prefer the free markets to federal regulation.
however, you know, too, that the private sector is not going to build pipelines without government help. we've seen that with keystone, they need the approval, and they won't build out the gas stations on the private side. you'll need the government involvement somehow, aren't you? >> well, actually we work with the public utility commissions in each of the states so they are the ones that, you know, provide the rate mechanisms, and i think there's innovative approaches that they can use to expand the current infrastructure. and we get requests every day, how can you take natural gas and make it available to all americans? we provide -- our members provide natural gas to 177 million americans, so we've seen the increased demand. at the same time there are opportunities, and you talk about transportation, and boone pickens is a good friend as well. there, we're talking about are there incentives, but i think in this current political and economic environment, business is not going to wait for government. there are some things it can do,
such as in a regulatory front. we can have -- we had progress on the cafe standards where we had evil -- a level playing field, leveling out parity with electric vehicles, so those are steps that can be done on a regulatory approached as opposed to just saying the federal government. >> i want to leave it with this, okay, because it's not something that a lot of others have talked about which is the unfortunate fact of job training. we're seeing it in north dakota. do we have the men and women with the skills and death sire to do this kind of work, because some of these places are far flung. >> well, in the utility business, you know, there are excellent-paying jobs and good-paying jobs but technical jobs in many respects. in the production side, you have high school graduates making $90,000. the question is are they willing to move to take advantage of those opportunities? but the opportunities are there. there are over 1.5 million jobs in this sector. that will continue to grow, and
it is the bright spot in not only the u.s. economy, but it is the discussion point around the world. you can't have a conversation about energy without it being the foundation of clean natural gas. >> all right. congressman david mccurty, president of the aga. a good discussion. >> good to talk to you, brian. >> who left washington, d.c. a $50 million tax winful in the money mystery gripping the nation's capital, and speaking of which, we'll show you how you'll be able to make some money in the one industry, unfortunately, with guaranteed customers. ♪
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or trouble breathing. tell your doctor your medical history. and find an arthritis treatment for you. visit celebrex.com and ask your doctor about celebrex. for a body in motion. this has washington guessing. when reporters pored over washington's $417 million budget surplus, they came across a rather curious entry. one single d.c. estate tax payment was $50 million. tax officials there aren't talking, but reporters point to sidney harmon, founder of harmon international who died in april of 2011. his net worth around 500 million bucks so that bill would seem about right. quite a gift to a city that could use the money. here's an industry you probably don't spend a lot of time thinking about, but you will encounter at some point, death. turns out you can actually invest in this.
t tyler mathison. >> at one time i went to a huge expo significance hall in charlotte, north carolina, it was macabre, morbid and oddly fascinating, take a look. >> reporter: floor is filled with all kinds of practical items. there's the urn holder for the back of a hearse and the body hold their will get you there. >> a lot of heavy lifting in the funeral business? >> absolutely. it's awkward weight to lift. it's not packaged. it doesn't have handles. >> reporter: and the people aren't helping. they are not making it easy. >> not putting their arms around your neck. >> reporter: can i do this. >> wow. >> reporter: raise and lower and i'll push around. hill says she sold more than 1,300 systems to funeral hom